How the May 2025 Conflict Transformed Pakistan's Strike Strategy into an Intelligence-Driven Combat Doctrine

Summary

Pakistan's military doctrine has undergone significant transformation following the May 2025 conflict with India, evolving along two complementary tracks: direct lessons learned from the conflict itself and the continuation of pre-existing structural doctrinal changes that were already in progress. These earlier reforms were largely inspired by observations from the Russia-Ukraine War beginning in 2022, combined with Pakistan's improved access to advanced Chinese defence technologies at more affordable costs, spanning domains from satellites to precision-guided munitions. Before the conflict, each branch of Pakistan's armed forces was independently developing enhanced strike and deterrence capabilities, including the Army's Fatah-I and Fatah-II missile systems, the Air Force's planned acquisition of the J-35AE stealth fighter, and the Navy's long-standing procurement of eight Hangor-class submarines for area-denial purposes. Pakistan's pre-war planning appeared to anticipate a conflict scenario similar to the 2019 standoff — a geographically limited exchange centered on Kashmir — with strategic goals focused on enabling counter-offensive strike capacity and deterring Indian aerial incursions through advanced SAM systems like the HQ-9BE. However, the May 2025 conflict likely fundamentally redirected the priorities and purpose of Pakistan's procurement pipeline beyond these originally narrower assumptions.