How the 2026 Iran Conflict May Reshape China's Military, Just as the Gulf War Did in 1991

Summary

The 1991 Gulf War served as a watershed moment for the Chinese military, as Chinese officers watched in shock as the United States rapidly dismantled Iraq's armed forces, exposing every deficiency within China's own military capabilities. This prompted China's Central Military Commission to fundamentally restructure its military strategy around the concept of "Local Wars Under High Technology Conditions," acknowledging that China had been preparing for the wrong type of warfare. Now, 35 years later, the ongoing 2026 U.S.-Israeli military campaign against Iran is creating a similar learning opportunity for China, as the Strait of Hormuz has effectively been shut down — not through traditional naval blockades or minefields, but through the collapse of maritime insurance and subsequent commercial decisions that cascaded throughout global shipping. Tanker traffic has plummeted by approximately 70 percent initially before collapsing to nearly zero, disrupting roughly 20 percent of the world's daily oil supply, with approximately 750 vessels stranded inside the Persian Gulf. The Chinese military is closely observing these developments, and while conventional wisdom suggests China might welcome American distraction in the Middle East, the strategic and economic disruptions unfolding in the region present China with complex and potentially troubling lessons about modern warfare and maritime vulnerability.