Russia's Ambitions to Restore Its Empire Are Crumbling

Summary

Russia refused to honor its mutual defense agreement with Iran when Israel and the United States launched airstrikes against Iran in June 2025, declining to activate its S-400 air defense and electronic warfare systems in Syria despite Iran having provided over four billion dollars' worth of military aid to Russia. Russia's refusal stemmed from its reluctance to be drawn into another costly conflict, as the ongoing Ukraine war had already devastated Russian ground forces and consumed more than half a trillion dollars that the country desperately needs for economic recovery. Russia's current troubles are largely self-inflicted, stemming from a series of aggressive territorial seizures beginning with Georgia in 2008, Crimea shortly thereafter, and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which alarmed former Soviet states and reinforced fears of Russian imperial reconquest. These military adventures have severely undermined Russia's geopolitical standing, exhausted its military and financial resources, and eroded trust among its allies and partners. While many Russians openly acknowledge nostalgia for rebuilding their empire, the reality on the ground suggests that such imperial ambitions are becoming increasingly unattainable.