The Never-Ending Battle for Semiconductor Dominance

Summary

In an exclusive interview, semiconductor expert and author Rakesh Kumar dispels the notion that chip wars, export controls, and supply shortages are new developments, explaining that geopolitical competition over semiconductors has existed since their invention, influencing everything from Cold War military strategy to modern U.S.-China tensions. Kumar discusses the complex challenges surrounding the phase-out of legacy chips, which still account for roughly two-thirds of global chip production, noting that while major foundries like TSMC and Samsung are expected to exit legacy manufacturing within two to three years, replacement with advanced chips carries significant cost and technical barriers, particularly for aerospace and defense applications. He raises concerns about a broader innovation slowdown in the semiconductor industry, pointing out that microprocessor speed improvements have decelerated significantly, AI chips are falling behind model demands, and modern GPUs consume vastly more energy than the human brain for equivalent tasks. To address these challenges, Kumar advocates for the establishment of three to four industry-government research consortia in the United States, each targeting distinct breakthrough areas such as alternative computing paradigms, novel materials, and advanced fabrication technologies. The article ultimately frames semiconductor competition as a persistent, structural feature of global geopolitics rather than a temporary crisis unique to the current era.