The Hidden Reasons Western and Non-Chinese Defence Suppliers Are Quietly Abandoning Pakistan's Military Procurement Market

Summary

Pakistan ranked as the world's fifth-largest arms importer between 2021 and 2025, with an overwhelming 80% of its major weapons acquisitions sourced from China, a figure that has grown significantly from the 73% Chinese share recorded during the preceding 2016–2020 period. Despite operating under serious fiscal constraints, Pakistan maintains predictable and substantial multi-billion-dollar defence procurement cycles, with the Pakistan Air Force expected to launch its next major acquisition drive in the 2030s to replace aging F-16A/B Block-15 aircraft and develop a next-generation air warfare capability. While Western-imposed export controls and supply-side restrictions partially explain Pakistan's heavy reliance on Chinese suppliers, the procurement and operational behaviors of the Pakistani military services themselves are also actively deterring non-Chinese original equipment manufacturers who would otherwise be willing to engage. A key problematic habit identified is the practice of unlicensed maintenance, repair, and overhaul activities conducted at Pakistan Aeronautical Complex, including unauthorized work on the Pratt & Whitney Canada PT6 engine line, which raises serious intellectual property and contractual compliance concerns for foreign OEMs. These demand-side behavioral patterns, recurring across the Pakistan Navy, Army, and Air Force, collectively create a self-reinforcing cycle that continues pushing Pakistan's defence dependency further toward China.