Could Iran Emerge as the Dominant Force in the Middle East? Insights from a Veteran Pakistani Military Officer
Summary
A recent episode of Quwa's Pulse Check podcast explores Pakistan's increasingly complex strategic position in the Middle East, featuring retired Brigadier General Dr. Tughral Yamin in conversation with host Bilal Khan. The discussion is framed around a striking contradiction: Pakistan brokered a ceasefire between the US and Iran in April 2026 while simultaneously maintaining a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia, Iran's chief regional rival. Bilal Khan advances the argument that Iran is actively positioning itself as the Middle East's dominant power, citing its control over the Strait of Hormuz, nuclear ambiguity, and influence in Lebanon as key instruments of leverage. He contends that Pakistan should embrace a more deliberate Middle Eastern identity, drawing on its historical participation in CENTO and the Baghdad Pact, and potentially positioning itself along India's Gulf energy supply routes as a long-term strategic counterbalance. Dr. Yamin largely agrees with this framing but argues that Pakistan already possesses a coherent and proven Middle East policy, pointing to its US-Iran mediation as evidence of sophisticated diplomatic agency driven by Pakistan's own security imperatives.
Key Takeaways
- 1. Pakistan's simultaneous roles as US-Iran ceasefire broker and Saudi Arabia's defence partner represent a significant and potentially unsustainable strategic contradiction that will require careful long-term management
- 2. Iran's growing regional influence — exercised through Hormuz leverage, nuclear ambiguity, and proxy networks in Lebanon — is increasingly forcing neighbouring states like Pakistan to recalibrate their strategic postures
- 3. Pakistan's historical participation in CENTO and the Baghdad Pact suggests a precedent for deeper Middle Eastern security engagement, which some analysts believe should be deliberately revived and modernised
- 4. The proposition that Pakistan could position itself along India's Gulf energy corridors reflects an emerging school of thought seeking to convert geographic proximity into structured geopolitical leverage
- 5. Pakistan's mediation between Washington and Tehran is being assessed as a demonstration of independent diplomatic capability, with domestic security calculations — particularly avoiding a hostile Iran on its western border — serving as a primary driver